Comments

  • SMA News and Coronavirus Update June 12, 2021
    "What is the Brunette party?"
    Google auto translate for Morena party. I can't help with your other questions.
  • Methodology for Calculating Estimated Active Cases of Covid for SMA
    I think the model did a good job at estimating total infections using the factors of 10 and 22 for the low and high estimates, respectively. Applying those factors directly to recovered cases and using a factor of 1 for deaths apparently leads to a discrepancy in the estimated active cases over time.

    For example, using today's (June 2) values of 2808 total cases, 2588 confirmed cases and 217 deaths and the low estimate factor of 10 we get estimated active cases = (2808-2588)*10 - 217 = 2200 -217 = 1983.

    Which seems reasonable. Except that the 2200 active cases, before adjusting for deaths, implies 220 official confirmed cases with the factor of 10. To get 220 new confirmed cases in SMA you would have to include all new cases from March 16 to today. It does not seem reasonable, to me, that cases from March and April would still be 'active'. So, this simple formula is not fully accounting for actual recoveries (and deaths) in calculating estimated active cases. I could try to adjust the calculation to account for only more recent cases but that complicates things so, for now, it seems reasonable to just stop publishing those values.

    I do think the estimated active cases served a useful purpose in pointing out that the actual number was "much higher" than the official confirmed numbers even though we never knew (and will never know) exactly how much higher.
  • Coronavirus Dashboard May 31, 2021
    Check out the daily News and Coronavirus update. Like today's:
    https://www.smafaq.com/discussion/5131/sma-news-and-coronavirus-update-may-31-2021

    Each includes this section:
    ~~~~~
    GTO Vaccination News
    For more information on the Vaccinations in GTO see News Wire Mexico and select the location GTO and category Health or click this link News Wire Mexico: GTO, Health.

    GTO Vaccination Portal lists vaccination sites.
    Covid-19 SMA. <<-- Check frequently for the latest updates.
    ~~~~~
    Between the news in the post and the information in the links in the GTO Vaccination News it pretty much covers what I know for vaccinations for the state.
  • Methodology for Calculating Estimated Active Cases of Covid for SMA
    SMAFAQ published estimated active cases using this model for some time. It has done a good job of estimating a factor to use to get a feel for the actual number of total Covid-19 infections in SMA, in my opinion and was useful as Covid-19 peaked in SMA. However, as the number of new cases and deaths from Covid-19 in SMA decline this model overestimates the current number of active infections. In any case it has outlived its usefulness and I will no longer be publishing the estimated active cases. Thanks to William Conklin for helping to clarify my thoughts on this.
  • U.S. Embassy News, Updates, and Information
    Latest update:
    U.S. citizens may directly return to the United States with certain expired U.S. passports. (May 26, 2021).
  • Alarming Events at Well-known Nursing Home
    There are links above to two different articles with two different aspects of the story.

    The Original: Alarming Events at Well-known Nursing Home

    The Update: Reforma (sp).

    Click and read both for a fuller perspective of the story.
  • Methodology for Calculating Estimated Active Cases of Covid for SMA


    Thanks for your critical eye and the question: "the average estimated cases is still quite high, let's estimate 3,000 reported every day. If cases were actually that high + the number of people in the municipality now vaccinated, wouldn't we have reached something close to the much ballyhooed (and perhaps near-impossible but still worth talking about) herd immunity by now?"

    Short answer: no.

    Longer answer: The calculated multiplier for SMA cases (the high end estimate) is 22. That can change based on the ratio of deaths to cases but 22 is the highest it has been. On today's Dashboard we have a total of 2785 confirmed cases. 2785 x 22 = 61,270 total estimated cases in SMA.

    The municipality of SMA has a population of 174,615 in the latest census. And, 61,270 / 174,615 = 35%.

    About 13% of that 174 thousand are 'older adults' (60 and over). If we make the most optimistic possible estimation that 100% of them got vaccinated (I'm guessing it was closer to 75%) and that none of them previously had Covid-19 and just add in all 13% then that is 35% +13% = 48%. Still a long way from anything close to an amount needed for herd immunity.

    (I skipped the teachers and medical professionals in that quick estimate but I think the overestimate for the 60+ crowd more than covers those numbers.)

    So, not herd immunity, but still there is great value in getting these most vulnerable vaccinated. See: "Vaccinate the 20% of the country that represent 95% of the deaths"

    A possible point of confusion with my daily estimates is those are estimated active cases. Not estimated new cases. Cases stay active until resolved through either recovery or death. If we had 3000 or so new cases every day in SMA we would all have had Covid-19 some time ago.
  • Alarming Events at Well-known Nursing Home
    Guanajuato ministerial police broke into the "Cielito Lindo" nursing home in San Miguel de Allende, to take an inmate of United States nationality.
    Guanajuato ministerial police broke into the "Cielito Lindo" nursing home in San Miguel de Allende, to take an inmate of United States nationality. During the operation, the agents beat and detained the lawyer from the nursing home.

    The US Consul in San Miguel Allende, Erika Montes Ruiz, participated in the police raid. The events occurred on the afternoon of Saturday, May 8. ...

    The police officers entered with a search warrant whose purpose was to verify the conditions of the inmate Janet Howey who, according to a complaint from Consul Montes, was deprived of liberty.
    Reforma (sp).
  • Jóvenes Adelante - A Higher Education Renaissance [] Rotary Club Presentation
    Yes, Lic. Carla Maria Cadena Rios also presented. (I skimmed the video at the link).
  • Can you simmer?
    "SIMMER on your gas range?
    Turn the flame to it's highest, then turn slowly, so slowly, as if you were to turn it off-but not all the way off, and you'll get a tiny flame, choose how tiny and there ya go."u39po25ynznmk62s.png
    Link

    I might need to be careful that the flame does not go out entirely, but that works on our stove!

    Thank you Elsanne!
  • mexpatriate: i am not an expatriate
    Expatriate or immigrant?
    An expatriate (often shortened to expat) is a person residing in a country other than their native country. In common usage, the term often refers to professionals, skilled workers, or artists taking positions outside their home country, either independently or sent abroad by their employers. However, the term 'expatriate' is also used for retirees and others who have chosen to live outside their native country. Historically, it has also referred to exiles. ...

    The varying use of these terms for different groups of foreigners can be seen as implying nuances about wealth, intended length of stay, perceived motives for moving, nationality, and even race. This has caused controversy, with many asserting that the traditional use of the word "expat" has had racist connotations. For example, a British national working in Spain or Portugal is commonly referred to[by whom?] as an 'expatriate', whereas a Spanish or Portuguese national working in Britain is referred to as an 'immigrant', thus indicating Anglocentrism.
    Wikipedia: Expatriate
  • Methodology for Calculating Estimated Active Cases of Covid for SMA
    COVID: They estimate that almost half of Guanajuato could have been infected.
    contagios-covid-guanajuato-universidad-de-washington.jpg_673822677.jpg
    A report from the University of Washington estimates that by April, between 41 and 49% of Guanajuato could have been infected with COVID at some point.
    Periódico AM (sp) | English.
    GW: This is consistent with the high estimate calculated by SMAFAQ for GTO. 131,382 confirmed cases * 23 = 3,021,786.
    For SMA this same calculation is 2,751 confirmed cases * 22 = 60,522 estimated total infections from a population of about 174 thousand.
    Why does GTO have a multiplier of 23 and SMA have a multiplier of 22? Because they are calculated for each separately as described above.
    See: Google Spreadsheet.
  • Tacos Don Felix, Insider Tips
    Tacos Don Felix.
    tacos-don-felix-ing.jpg
    For more than 14 years, Tacos Don Felix has been bringing some of the best service in the area.
    Atención San Miguel
  • Quality of Life
    @Bonnie Lee Black - you might want to check this out ...
    A double-blind, placebo-controlled trial found a dramatic effect of the anti-inflammatory spice pigment curcumin against inflammatory bowel disease.

    Striking with the Root: Turmeric Curcumin & Ulcerative Colitis.

    Also see NutritionFacts Topics: Ulcerative Colitis.
  • How safe is SMA, really?
    Guilty as charged, more or less. I think your first paragraph is not an unreasonable summary. SMAFAQ is aimed at the English speaking community in SMA and mostly address that question from that perspective. Some of our main posts on violence / murder have been:
    Articles on the subject I write or select from other source may reflect my bias. And, my bias is that historically SMA has been pretty safe for the English speaking community here. Certainly as regards murder. That's my bias because I believe that the data is pretty clear on that.

    There is also the Celaya ranked as the most violent city in the world type stories. Which can be both accurate and misleading as to risk for most of our readers at the same time.

    Other violent crimes against the person or property are harder to quantify due to a lack of data. But, we do cover other stories from time to time:

    See all posts in the category Security and Crime.

    As for extortion, it is a hard story to cover. We do carry stories about extortion (I see 73 results on a search of SMAFAQ for extortion -- some of those are duplicates) but it is hard to get good data on the subject. Enough has been reported on it that I would be concerned about extortion if I were thinking about opening a bar, restaurant or hotel anywhere in Mexico, including SMA.

    Specifically, "What are the risks for foreigners who are considering opening such a business in SMA?" I'm not in a position to give a good answer on that but maybe some of our readers could add their two cents?
  • Didi food
    I understand. For people that are here part-time (and some full timers), changing their Google Play country may not make sense.

    In my opinion (as a retired app developer, publisher, tester and product manager) app developers should be sensitive to that and allow downloads "from other countries" where feasible. I'm sure the bulk of their business is from people living in Mexico, but why would they not want the business from tourists and other part-timers? I can also appreciate the developers may also have additional legal, form of payment and testing issues if they allowed downloads from other countries but the technical aspects of that should be minimal.
  • Didi food
    Both accounts I used do have Mexico set as the Google Play country.

    If you move to a new country, you may want to change your Google Play country. Your Google Play country determines what content you see in the store. The apps, games and other content in the Store can vary by country.Google: Change your Google Play country

    • You can only change your Play country once per year. So if you change your country, you won’t be able to change it back for one year.
    • When you change your country, you won’t be able to use your Google Play balance that you have in your old country in your new country.
    • You may lose access to some books, movies, TV shows, games and apps.

    To change your country ...
    see: Change your Google Play country.
  • Didi food
    Thanks for the report. Are you physically in Mexico or elsewhere?

    https://www.didi-food.com/es-MX/

    Interesting. I'm in SMA.

    Using the link above and then the Google Play link on that page ... I just tried on three different Android devices, with two different Google accounts. Two US based phones and one Mexican based phone. All three allowed me to install and open the app. I haven't tried using it other than just checking that it would open and display their list of restaurants in SMA.

    The "DiDi Food - Food Delivery" (from DiDi Global) app I accessed (the one I was taken to from the link) is rated 4.6 / 5.0 (210K reviews) and has had 5 million+ downloads.
  • How do you get your U.S mail and packages?
    We have been very happy with Mini Express over the last three years or so. Another commonly used mail and package service in SMA is La Conexion. See their website:
    https://www.laconexionsma.com/
  • SMA News and Coronavirus Update April 11, 2021

    Are you a private doctor? You can register for your vaccination.
    GTO Official registry of health professionals for Covid-19 vaccination programming ...
    From: Mexico's Vaccination Plan, Status and News April 17, 2021

    COVID: Are you a private doctor? You can register for your vaccination.
    vacunas-covid-guanajuato-abren-registro-medicos-privados-vacunacion.jpg_673822677.jpg
    On the page of the Secretariat of Health of Guanajuato, the data of private health personnel is captured.
    Periódico AM (sp) | English.
    From: Mexico's Vaccination Plan, Status and News April 15, 2021

    But I have not seen anything specific scheduled.
  • Are Cartels Connected to Booming Truck Theft in Mexico?
    Also:
    "Data compiled by the NICB showed in 2017, there were 8,676 cargo vehicle thefts reported, or about 24 thefts every day. Most occur on weekdays, with Monday and Friday being the most significant days for these thefts, totaling 6,752. Saturdays and Sundays accounted for 1,924 such thefts."
    https://www.nicb.org/prevent-fraud-theft/cargo-theft

    Commercial truck theft is on the rise and drivers need to realize their vehicles are targeted by thieves. “In 1998,” explained commissioner Dwight Helmick, “1,734 trucks and 4,879 trailers were stolen.
    https://www.paulhanson.com/CommercialTruckTheft.aspx