Methodology for Calculating Estimated Active Cases of Covid for SMA
Thanks for your critical eye and the question: "the average estimated cases is still quite high, let's estimate 3,000 reported every day. If cases were actually that high + the number of people in the municipality now vaccinated, wouldn't we have reached something close to the much ballyhooed (and perhaps near-impossible but still worth talking about) herd immunity by now?"
Short answer: no.
Longer answer: The calculated multiplier for SMA cases (the high end estimate) is 22. That can change based on the ratio of deaths to cases but 22 is the highest it has been. On today's Dashboard
we have a total of 2785 confirmed cases. 2785 x 22 = 61,270 total estimated cases in SMA.
The municipality of SMA has a population of 174,615 in the latest census
. And, 61,270 / 174,615 = 35%.
About 13% of that 174 thousand are 'older adults' (60 and over). If we make the most optimistic possible estimation that 100% of them got vaccinated (I'm guessing it was closer to 75%) and that none of them previously had Covid-19 and just add in all 13% then that is 35% +13% = 48%. Still a long way from anything close to an amount needed for herd immunity.
(I skipped the teachers and medical professionals in that quick estimate but I think the overestimate for the 60+ crowd more than covers those numbers.)
So, not herd immunity, but still there is great value in getting these most vulnerable vaccinated. See: "Vaccinate the 20% of the country that represent 95% of the deaths"
A possible point of confusion with my daily estimates is those are estimated active
cases. Not estimated new
cases. Cases stay active until resolved through either recovery or death. If we had 3000 or so new
cases every day in SMA we would all have had Covid-19 some time ago.