• Glenn Wilson
    55
    Updated Sept 16, 6:48 pm: Added "Oversimplified summary."

    GW: This is a must read article if you want to understand the cartel violence in the state of Guanajuato and SMA, including the role of the governments, the police, and the politicians and how it might end.

    The de facto alliance between the state government, the federal government and the CJNG to eliminate El Marro (CSRL) has been trying unsuccessfully to crush him for 9 months; the CSRL counterattack has caused the governor's popularity to decline.

    Border lines.
    For approximately three years the different drug trafficking groups that dispute control of the state of Guanajuato have been in a virtual technical tie. Although each cartel has managed to consolidate areas of influence, it is difficult to draw the “border lines”. We know that in León, Silao, Dolores, the towns of Rincón and the northwest of the state there is a strong presence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). In the south of the entity (Pénjamo, Acámbaro, Salvatierra, Santiago Valley) there are still incursions of cells from the Michoacan cartels that threaten the conquests of the CJNG. Finally, in Salamanca, Celaya, San Luis de la Paz, Villagrán and the Apaseos area, the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel (CSRL) dominates, aimed mainly at the illegal extraction of hydrocarbons.

    Technical tie.
    But much of the state is still in dispute. There are regions and municipalities that have passed from control of one cartel to another, in relatively short periods of time. According to the heat maps that the State Attorney General's Office (FGE) began to publish on its social networks, this situation occurs in Irapuato, León, Salamanca and Celaya. There are too many territories that are no man's land, or rather, that are everyone's land. There is no clear winner. There is no hegemonic cartel in the state, so we are in the worst of all possible worlds. There are several cartels fighting the control of the entity, but so far none has managed to prevail. This "technical tie" is in fact the main reason that explains the bloodbath that is lived in the state. The cartels are braided in a deputy in which nobody wants to give ground. The sides at war have the human, material and financial resources to keep up the fight. The worst part is that they have supply lines outside of Guanajuato (Jalisco, Michoacán and San Luis Potosí). Even if the business falls, they can continue to receive support from abroad. We have been like this for more than 3 years.

    A new actor enters the scene.
    We all remember the sweeping pace with which the CJNG broke into Guanajuato. In record time he crushed and annihilated historical leaders of drug trafficking and car theft in León, such as Gustavo Sánchez Reynoso, (a) "El Jari". They advanced to bayonet openwork in municipalities such as Silao, Romita, Pénjamo and Irapuato. The ruthless commanders sent by Nemesio Oceguera (a) "El Mencho", leader of the CJNG, "were taking a place" with relative ease. But the CJNG suffered the "disease of victory." His rapid advance through several municipalities in the state made them think that Guanajuato would be a piece of cake. They started by placing blankets on bridges, roundabouts and boulevards. They executed some local narcocumenudists. Beside their bodies they put phosphorescent cards with the list of the following rival narcoenudists who would be killed, looking for the dispersion of them. We all learned the way. A narcomanta, a massacre, a stage setting and its diffusion on social networks, were the house brand. They were the famous clean of Jalisco.

    Continue at Cartels war sinks at the helm and bathes blood in Guanajuato (sp).

    Updated Sept 16, 6:48 pm: Added "Oversimplified summary."

    Oversimplified summary - read the entire article if you can.
    Murders (Intentional Homicide) increased dramatically in the state of Guanajuato (GTO) starting about January 2018.
    ixy4jn40e5s2qhnw.png
    Source Mexico Crime Report (updated Sept 23, 2019).

    The murder increase is because two cartels have been fighting over control of cartel business in GTO and killing each other. Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel (CSRL) specializes in fuel theft and has dominated in GTO for years. Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is relatively new in GTO and is trying to eliminate CSRL.

    Both of these cartels have armies and weapons that exceed those of the state of GTO and GTO tried to stay out of the way and let them fight it out. When AMLO came to power he prioritized stopping fuel theft so the federal government and GTO entered the war against CSRL. This meant joining forces, implicitly or explicitly, with the other cartel CJNG. Some police in GTO were drawn into this battle and had to pick sides. Professional hitmen arrived from out of state to assassinate police and other targets.

    "The result: Guanajuato is the state with the highest number of police killings ..."

    Progress has been made against CSRL and fuel theft.

    "In sum, unless El Marro (CSRL) has accumulated wealth that allows it to survive with a substantial decrease in revenue, after the reduction of clandestine fuel intakes, the cartel war would last at most two or three years. The CJNG would take over the state of Guanajuato and ensue peace."

    "The end of the war would occur if the CJNG manages to reinforce the army deployed in Guanajuato. With the support of the state and federal government, Mencho (CJNG) would take over Guanajuato and the war would move to the neighboring state of Querétaro ..."

    See Google translations for help translating the rest of the article.

    More in the category Security and Crime.

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  • Glenn Wilson
    55
    Updated Sept 16, 6:48 pm: Added "Oversimplified summary."
  • George Woodward
    2
    Much appreciated Glenn.
    GFW+
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