• Glenn Wilson
    97
    • Here’s what to expect to happen over the coming weeks.
    • Vaccines will dramatically reduce deaths.
    • Delta Variant detected in SMA.
    • Americas are facing pandemic of the unvaccinated.
    • About 18% of people in Mexico and SMA fully vaccinated.
    • COVID infections among children under 20 years in GTO tripled
    • Patients hospitalized for COVID in GTO double.
    • Cases are being significantly undercounted.
    • Why should vaccinated people wear masks? UCSF expert gives his take.
    • Increased transmissibility and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.
    • Some of the vaccine protection seems to wane over time.
    • How effective are coronavirus vaccines against the Delta variant?
    • Why Vaccinated People Are Getting ‘Breakthrough’ Infections.
    • A tale of two pandemics.

    A collection of articles covering Covid, Delta, Vaccines, and SMA from a variety of sources. Some of these focus on the US but I see no reason to expect much different here except even a smaller percentage are vaccinated here than in the US.

    Here’s what I expect to happen over the coming weeks.
    By Dr. Tom Frieden
    Globally, we’re far from the end of the pandemic. Delta is at least two times more contagious than the original virus, which means it will infect and kill more people.

    Many countries have so far avoided big surges but haven’t had access to the vaccines needed to vaccinate their populations. Many of these countries will likely see explosive spread of Covid over the coming weeks and months.

    In the months ahead, more cases won’t correlate to more deaths in the same way as earlier in the pandemic. This graph from the UK shows why. Age matters—a lot.

    Vaccines will dramatically reduce deaths.

    Here’s what I expect to happen over the coming weeks. A twitter thread by Dr. Tom Frieden

    First case of Delta variant detected in San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato continues with a yellow traffic light.
    dsc_0003-scaled-1.jpg
    Guanajuato, Gto. July 23 .- Guanajuato continues to register infections and deaths from Covid-19 and remains at a yellow traffic light for 19 weeks. In addition, the second case of the Delta variant has already been presented in the municipality of San Miguel de Allende, in a female person of the second decade of life ...
    Noticias Con Valor (sp) | English.
    GW: The wording / translation is a bit awkward. This article refers to the first case of the Delta variant detected in SMA which is the second detected in the state of GTO. If I understand correctly, the patient was sick with Covid in the first week of June so the Delta variant has been in SMA for at least six weeks. I do have other reliable information that this is not the only confirmed case of the Delta variant in SMA.

    Americas are facing pandemic of the unvaccinated, PAHO says.
    CYRAFXSUYJK4NDTDXEV2NG4U2M.jpg
    The Americas are facing a pandemic of the unvaccinated, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said on Wednesday, as it warned that countries with low inoculation rates are seeing increases in COVID-19 and repeated a call for vaccine donations. ...

    Just 15 percent of people in Latin America and the Caribbean have been fully vaccinated, she said, adding that figure obscures that some countries like Honduras and Haiti have yet to reach even 1% inoculation.
    Reuters

    About 18% of people in Mexico fully vaccinated.
    gbe0zij6eujje3yh.jpg

    Source (click for latest).
    GW: My guesstimate is that about the same 18 percent of the people in SMA have been fully vaccinated. About 22% of SMA (those 50 and older) has had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated here in SMA and not everyone took advantage of that opportunity. The 22% figure does not include teachers, medical professionals and folks that got fully vaccinated elsewhere.

    COVID infections among children under 20 years in Guanajuato tripled.
    se-triplican-contagios-de-covid-en-jovenes-guanajuatenses.jpg_673822677.jpg
    So far in July, coronavirus has been detected in 401 children and young people under 20 years of age, in all of last month there were 119, throughout Guanajuato.
    Periódico AM (sp) | English.

    Patients hospitalized for COVID in Guanajuato double.
    new_project.jpg_673822677.jpg
    The number of hospitalized patients skyrockets in two weeks. While on July 9 there were 18, yesterday they reported 49; 29 are serious and another 13 are in critical condition
    Periódico AM (sp) | English.

    Cases are being significantly undercounted.
    (In the US) "We might be picking up something on the order of 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 infections right now ..."
    Scott Gottlieb, MD in the video above: Senior Fellow AEI. Partner NEA. Contributor CNBC. 23rd Commissioner US_FDA 2017 to 2019. Boards: Pfizer, Illumina, AetionInc, TempusLabs.
    ~~~~~

    Why should vaccinated people wear masks? UCSF expert gives his take.
    If you're fully vaccinated, you may be wondering why you should consider wearing a mask indoors. Research shows the vaccines are highly effective and even if you do get a breakthrough case — that is, become infected even though you're vaccinated — you're unlikely to experience severe symptoms and highly unlikely to land in the hospital. ...

    Wachter gave seven reasons in his email for why he thinks it may be advantageous to mask at gatherings where there are likely to be unvaccinated people who may or may not be wearing masks ...
    Why should vaccinated people wear masks? UCSF expert gives his take.

    Increased transmissibility and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern as at June 2021 separator.
    In this analysis we have highlighted the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants and estimated their relative transmission rates. Given our estimates and all other factors remaining constant, B.1.617.2 (Delta) is expected to rapidly outcompete other variants and become the dominant circulating lineage over the coming months.
    Increased transmissibility and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern as at June 2021 separator.

    Some of the vaccine protection seems to wane over time.
    36ld8h9askddqhhv.png
    Source.
    (This is new data and may not have been rigorously reviewed yet.)

    Other data seems to indicate greater protection against infection, but, does not segregate the data (so far as I can tell) into time intervals based on how long ago the vaccine was received.

    ... to estimate the effectiveness of vaccination against symptomatic disease ... Effectiveness after one dose of vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) was notably lower among persons with the delta variant (30.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.2 to 35.7) than among those with the alpha variant (48.7%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 51.7); the results were similar for both vaccines. With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant. With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant.
    Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant
    Note that BNT162b2 is Pfizer and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is AstraZeneca.

    How effective are coronavirus vaccines against the Delta variant?
    https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2F2f2b4650-e09b-11eb-ba08-b797b1293d98-fullwidth.png?dpr=2&fit=scale-down&quality=medium&source=next&width=1260
    Real-world studies show Pfizer and AstraZeneca still offer strong protection against severe disease.
    How effective are coronavirus vaccines against the Delta variant?

    Why Vaccinated People Are Getting ‘Breakthrough’ Infections.
    The vaccines are effective at preventing serious illness and death, but they are not a golden shield against the coronavirus.
    Why Vaccinated People Are Getting ‘Breakthrough’ Infections.

    A tale of two pandemics.

    Comments? Questions? Leave a comment below or email me at .

    More in the category News and Views.

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    Initially published July 24, 2021.
  • Glenn Wilson
    97
    In Mexico, as in the U.S., a large percent (but not all) of the older and most vulnerable have been fully vaccinated.

    What about herd immunity?
    Delta has changed what it'll take to reach herd immunity ... SF remains most vaxxed big city in U.S, w/ 69% fully vaxxed. Yet cases are risking brisky – dare I say exponentially.

    Delta is at least 2x more transmissible, which means the threshold for herd immunity will be higher.

    The Pfizer vaccine significantly reduces infectivity of breakthrough cases, but probably not enough to prevent sustained transmission of delta.
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