• Glenn Wilson
    53
    Updated in the comments.

    January - June 2019:
    • Mexico Crime Report,
    • Murders in Mexico surge to record,
    • Homicides continue their upward trend,
    • Number of high-power weapons used in crimes increased,
    • Officially 50 homicides in SMA,
    • Five U.S. Citizens Murdered in SMA (in 15 years),
    • Most Violent Municipios,
    • Staggering Violence Statistics,
    • Stratfor: Murder in Mexico in 2019: A Midyear Checkup,
    • Is the Jalisco Cartel Winning the Battle for Mexico’s Caribbean?,
    • Gang leader still on the run but officials say he has no resources left,
    • Firearms from US used in 7 out of 10 high-impact crimes and rising.

    Mexico Crime Report
    dv4xpnttr2t0y0o9.jpg
    Interactive infographics with Mexico Crime data is available at this website.
    Mexico Crime Report

    Murders in Mexico surge to record in first half of 2019
    There were 14,603 murders from January to June, versus the 13,985 homicides registered in the first six months of 2018, according to data posted over the weekend on the website of Mexico’s national public security office.

    Mexico is on course to surpass the 29,111 murders of last year, an all-time high.

    For years Mexico has struggled with violence as consecutive governments battled brutal drug cartels, often by taking out their leaders. That has resulted in the fragmentation of gangs and increasingly vicious internecine fighting.
    Murders in Mexico surge to record in first half of 2019

    Homicides continue their upward trend: January to June was the worst ever
    In per-capita terms, Colima led in the first half of the year. The small Pacific coast state recorded 40.7 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants between January and June, 3.5 times higher than the national rate of 11.6.

    Baja California was next, with a murder rate of 34.1 per 100,000 followed by Chihuahua, 27.6; Guanajuato, 23.1; and Morelos, 22.7.

    However, in terms of sheer numbers, Guanajuato was the most violent state during the first six months with a total of 1,383 homicide cases.
    Homicides continue their upward trend: January to June was the worst ever

    In 2019, the number of high-power weapons used in crimes has increased
    The Ministry of National Defense and the Office of the Attorney General of the Republic have so far detected in 2019 an increase in the number of weapons used in different criminal acts. The biggest increase has been in assault weapons, with 122 percent; in automatic rifles, 63 percent; in small arms and rifles, 9 percent, respectively.

    The above was announced by the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Marcelo Ebrard, during the morning conference of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

    The chancellor said that he has already asked the United States government “ to organize an operation, of course in its territory, us in ours, because going through weapons from the United States to Mexico is illegal, in the United States it is not, but in Mexico yes."
    In 2019, the number of high-power weapons used in crimes has increased (sp)

    Officially 50 homicides
    From January to June, 44 homicides with firearms have occurred, mainly these events have been direct attacks against specific targets.

    Two people were killed with a white weapon, one in the month of March and another in the month of April, in addition 3 homicides were reported with “other elements” and a feminicide, that of Francisca, a young university student disappeared in Celaya and located lifeless in The surroundings of the La Esmeralda fractionation, according to the Prosecutor’s report, death was caused by “another element”.
    Officially, the prosecution reports 50 homicides in the first half of the year (sp)

    Five U.S. Citizens Murdered in San Miguel de Allende (in 15 years)
    Approximately 64 murders occurred in SMA in the first six months of this year. That works out to an annual rate of about 75 per 100,000 (64*2 / 1.7).
    Five U.S. Citizens Murdered in San Miguel de Allende

    Most Violent Municipios from January 2019 to June 2019
    591s6a1hrykw8wgf.png
    San Miguel de Allende is ranked 38th by murder rate in Mexico as reported for the January - June timeframe at 56.3 intentional homicides per 100,000. San Miguel de Allende is 11th within the state of Guanajuato out of 46 municipalities. There are reports that SMA is the 3rd most violent or dangerous city in Guanajuato and all of those reports seem to trace back to a story in El Universal that is no longer on their website.

    Click through for the full infographic. We calculated 75 per 100,000 using the "unofficial" murder rate from the More Security in San Miguel de Allende Facebook group; see Five U.S. Citizens Murdered in San Miguel de Allende (in 15 years) above.
    Most Violent Municipios from January 2019 to June 2019

    Staggering Violence Statistics
    First half of 2019 leaves new homicide record; the violence increase in 4 years already exceeds 70%; with almost 20,600 people killed; the daily average rose for the second consecutive year. June and February 2019, were the most violent months in 22 years.

    Mexico reaches the middle of 2019 at unprecedented levels of violence. In June, 3,080 new cases of murdered persons were counted , which added to those of the previous months yields a total of 17, 608 victims of homicide and feminicide in the first half of the year. This is a rate of almost 14 murders per 100,000 inhabitants, a new record in at least 22 years.

    In fact, the number of victims of homicide and feminicide recorded in June 2019 represented a daily average of 102.6 murders per day, almost tying to that of February, which was 102.7 murders per day. They are the two months with the highest level of homicidal violence in history, both registered this year, and in the current sexennium.
    First Half of 2019 = Staggering Violence Statistics

    Update July 26, 2019. Adding:
    Stratfor: Murder in Mexico in 2019: A Midyear Checkup
    One commonality we are observing across Mexico is that the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) is playing a role in nearly every part of the country experiencing elevated violence, either directly or indirectly. ...

    The Mexican government has launched an aggressive nationwide operation to stem fuel theft in the country... While these efforts have reduced the problem, they have done little to quell the violence in Guanajuato state.

    Several cartels are active in Guanajuato, including remnants of Los Zetas, but the main catalyst of the violence there is the struggle between the CJNG and a regional organized crime group known as the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel led by Jose Antonio Yepez Ortiz (aka "El Marro".) Yepez Ortiz and his organization are fighting hard to keep the CJNG at bay, but the CJNG keeps sending forces into the state. The result has been sustained bloodshed.

    Murder in Mexico in 2019: A Midyear Checkup (Register for limited free article access.)
    For additional background, also see:
    Mexico’s Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel Risks Burning Too Bright, Too Fast
    Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG)

    Is the Jalisco Cartel Winning the Battle for Mexico’s Caribbean?
    Winning control of Chetumal would be a significant achievement for the CJNG. After expanding rapidly in recent years across at least 20 Mexican states, the group’s evolution has slowed due to a number of arrests of important members, infighting within the group, an ongoing war with the Sinaloa Cartel — as well as other smaller groups like the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel — and authorities’ focus on capturing their leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho.” ...

    As InSight Crime detailed in a 2019 investigation into Mexico’s role in the deadly rise of fentanyl, the CJNG is one of the “most important Mexican purveyors of the drug and its precursors” along with the Sinaloa Cartel.

    Is the Jalisco Cartel Winning the Battle for Mexico’s Caribbean?

    Gang leader still on the run but officials say he has no resources left
    The leader of a fuel theft gang believed to be responsible for much of the violence plaguing Guanajuato remains on the run but he has no resources to fund his criminal activities, according to federal and state authorities.

    Government sources told the newspaper Milenio that the bank accounts of Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel leader José Antonio “El Marro” Yépez Ortiz are frozen, undermining his capacity to bribe authorities, pay other gang members and buy the loyalty of people in different parts of the state.

    Mexico News Daily Gang leader still on the run but officials say he has no resources left
    Also see (non paywall version): “El Marro's” Assets Frozen, Cartel Santa Rosa de Lima Crippled

    Firearms from US used in 7 out of 10 high-impact crimes and rising
    An estimated 200,000 guns are smuggled into Mexico every year.

    Firearms from the United States are used in seven out of every 10 high-impact crimes committed in Mexico, according to the Secretariat of Foreign Affairs (SRE).

    The SRE said in a briefing note that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), a federal law enforcement organization within the United States Department of Justice, has confirmed that most guns seized by Mexican authorities come from north of the border.
    Firearms from US used in 7 out of 10 high-impact crimes and rising
    See also: US weapons, involved in 7 out of 10 high-impact crimes in Mexico: SRE
    (sp)

    More in the category Security and Crime.

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  • Sherry Harper
    9
    My brain just went into overload but, I am looking forward to reading all of these articles. Thank you for the research. It is amazing and very thorough!
  • Glenn Wilson
    53
    Brief Update Sept 1, 2019
    August 27 ... the 79th & 80th Homicides in SMA in 2019 and the 8th recorded in August.
    More Security in San Miguel de Allende
    Deaths in SMA through August.

    80 / .75 = 114 annualized homicide rate.
    (We are .75 of the way through the year.)

    114 / 1.7 = 67.
    (We have a population of about 170,000 people.)

    Current annualized murders per 100,000 in SMA = 67.

    The US Dept of State U.S. Citizen Deaths Overseas ...
    has been updated to include the first half of this year and includes 0 U.S. Citizen deaths due to non-natural causes in SMA in 2019.
    U.S. Citizen Deaths Overseas

    Mexico Crime Report is updated through July
    The murder (intentional homicide) rate is dropping ...
    h6vkg8b5i2nhfsk8.png
    Interactive infographics is available at this website.
    Mexico Crime Report

    Semáforo Delictivo now has July data
    otc0xfhzf39db8s7.png
    Interactive infographics is available at this website.
    Semáforo Delictivo

    Security and Crime: July Recap
    Security and Crime: August Recap
  • Jim Roberts
    0
    I think those reported US deaths are way below the actual number and reduced intentionally by the government to keep the expats from leaving. I've lived here nine years and am sure I've read of at least ten in the time I've lived here. I remember four and there were quite a few I didn't know and only read about. It seems to me that there were five women in one year about five years ago?
  • Glenn Wilson
    53
    Do you mean all deaths or homicides? The U.S. State Dept database lists 27 26 US Citizens deaths in SMA from non-natural causes, that I can find, since 2002 and five of those are homicides. Here they are:

    f1231yl7lx8rnbp0.png
  • Glenn Wilson
    53
    Brief Update Oct 11, 2019
    October 2 ... The homicide is the first recorded in October, and the 96th in SMA during 2019.
    More Security in San Miguel de Allende Oct 2.
    So, 95 murders in SMA through September, más o menos.

    95 x 12/9 = 127 annualized homicide rate.
    (The end of September is 9/12 of the way through the year.)

    127 / 1.7 = 75.
    (We have a population of about 170,000 people.)

    Current annualized murders per 100,000 in SMA = 75.

    The US Dept of State U.S. Citizen Deaths Overseas ...
    This is updated at six month intervals so no change since our last update.
    ... through the first half of this year includes 0 U.S. Citizen deaths due to non-natural causes in SMA in 2019.
    U.S. Citizen Deaths Overseas.

    Mexico Crime Report is updated through August
    The murder has gone back up in August after dropping since February ...
    1rfnjf6mg4ytlq4q.png
    Interactive infographics is available at this website.
    Mexico Crime Report

    Semáforo Delictivo now has August data
    hi79242lh4bn6hbe.png
    Interactive infographics is available at this website.
    Semáforo Delictivo
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