• Glenn Wilson
    83
    In Parts I - III we looked at how Mexico is faring compared to other countries for cases and deaths from Covid-19 and showed that Mexico is among the hardest hit countries in the world, in terms of the absolute and per capita Covid-19 deaths.

    But how about the state of GTO and the city of SMA? How are they doing compared to all of Mexico and the world?

    To answer that we will look at where Guanajuato and San Miguel de Allende are now in terms of total official deaths per capita from Covid-19. We will be using the data from the SMAFAQ Coronavirus Dashboard October 16, 2020. That article includes links for its data and it has the latest official data available as I write this article.

    First, a quick review:
    • Part I showed that Mexico looks good in terms of the number of daily cases but much worse for the number of daily deaths from Covid-19.
    • Part II showed the same pattern when looking at total cases and deaths.
    • Part III showed that a) low testing rates in Mexico are a significant factor for that discrepancy between cases and deaths and, b), "Mexico is currently number four in the world in the absolute number of Covid-19 deaths and number eight in the world in Covid-19 deaths per capita."

    You may recall this graph from Part II that shows Mexico at the top, for selected countries, for deaths per capita from Covid-19:

    Deaths from COVID-19, normalized by population.
    234k971jzgoi60qg.png

    How does Guanajuato or San Miguel de Allende compare?
    Let's add them to the graph and see. The 91-DIVOC website does not include this data so I will add it manually. For simplicity, I am only adding the current value and not recreating the graph starting at the beginning of the pandemic for GTO and SMA.

    Guanajuato
    me2twn9au5k5enne.png
    Guanajuato approximate population: 6 million.
    3068 deaths / 6 = 511 deaths per million population.

    Deaths from COVID-19, normalized by population including Guanajuato.
    pahx3890i4u3in2x.png
    Guanajuato, with 511 deaths per million, is doing better than the country of Mexico as a whole and is a little below Sweden on the graph. If GTO were a country it would rank as the 16th worst country in the world, out of 150 countries, for Covid-19 deaths per capita placing between Argentina and France. (Source: statista).

    San Miguel de Allende
    sevczrqnkmh1jf4p.png
    San Miguel de Allende approximate population: 200 thousand (0.2 million).
    35 deaths / 0.2 = 175 deaths per million population.

    Deaths from COVID-19, normalized by population including San Miguel de Allende.
    dngsyle08dfrhorc.png
    San Miguel de Allende, with 175 deaths per million, is doing much better than the country of Mexico and state of Guanajuato as a whole and is between Canada and Denmark on the graph. If SMA were a country it would rank as the 39th worst country in the world, out of 150 countries, for Covid-19 deaths per capita placing between Bahrain and Kyrgyzstan. (Source: statista).

    Guanajuato compared to San Miguel de Allende.
    The official deaths per million for GTO is 511 and it is 175 for SMA. If SMA had the same Covid-19 death rate as the rest of the state that would mean that SMA would have 511 * .2 = 102 deaths, so far, instead of the actual number of 35. That would be 67 more deaths in SMA.

    Why has San Miguel done better than the state of GTO and the country of Mexico?
    I believe there are a number of contributing factors:
    • The city enacted rules and regulations early on to help stop the spread of Covid-19.
    • SMA is very much a tourist town, and the pandemic further reduced tourist travel and visits.
    • The Covid-19 SMA webpage, and Facebook group page spreading accurate information about Covid-19 in SMA.
    • Joey Merrifield advocating for and walking patients through the process, for free, of getting tested for Covid-19.
    • And, too many other efforts and individuals to mention specifically.

    SMA is doing great compared to GTO, Mexico, USA, Europe and Sweden in Covid-19 deaths per capita. That really is some good news. But, at the same time, SMA is opening up, poco a poco. We could be one super-spreader event from being on a par with, or worse than, the rest of the country. And the current status of 35 deaths, is 35 too many.

    We are in the middle of a pandemic, in one of the hardest hit countries in the world.

    Please don't get complacent.

    More in the category Health and Medical.

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