• Glenn Wilson
    53
    According to the U.S. Department of State five U.S. citizens were murdered in SMA from October 2002 through December 2018. That is about one every three years on average.

    I am not aware of any U.S. citizen murders in SMA so far this year but will regularly check the U.S. Department of State database for the next update.

    Approximately 64 murders occurred in SMA in the first six months of this year. That works out to an annual rate of about 75 per 100,000 (64*2 / 1.7). For more background see Causes of Death.

    An annual murder rate of 75 per 100,000 is high. That would put San Miguel de Allende at position eight on the list from These were the 50 most violent cities in the world in 2018. A few excerpts from that list:
    • 50. New Orleans, Louisiana, had 36.87 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 46. Detroit had 38.78 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 32. Celaya, Mexico, had 46.99 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 23. Baltimore, Maryland, had 50.52 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 15. St. Louis, Missouri, had 60.59 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 8. Natal, Brazil, had 74.67 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 7. Ciudad Guayana, Venezuela, had 78.30 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 6. Irapuato, Mexico, had 81.44 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 3. Caracas, Venezuela, had 99.98 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 2. Acapulco, Mexico, had 110.5 homicides per 100,000 residents.
    • 1. Tijuana, Mexico, had 138.26 homicides per 100,000 residents.

    If it is not U.S. citizens that are being murdered here, who are the victims?

    It is widely believed that the murders in SMA are cartel related. I have no special knowledge but these articles and other sources suggest there is an ongoing war or wars between cartels in the state of Guanajuato.

    But this has only worsened a spiral of violence that has led the murder rate in Guanajuato — an important industrial and tourism state — to climb by 400 percent in four years.

    The Cartel de Santa Rosa de Lima, arguably Mexico’s most prominent criminal group dedicated to oil theft, may soon be brought down. It lacks the size and criminal diversity of its larger rivals.

    Stopping Oil Theft in Mexico Futile Game of Whac-a-Mole

    However, the CJNG is also battling a number of rivals. In central Guanajuato state, the group is fighting with the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel, led by José Antonio Yépez Ortiz, alias “El Marro.” One series of clashes between the two groups over oil theft left more than 50 people dead in October 2018. The CJNG is also at war with a splinter faction of the Zetas known as the Zeta Old School (Zetas Vieja Escuela), in addition to a splinter faction of the Gulf Cartel known as the Shadow Group (Grupo Sombra). One of the groups longest standing enemies has been the Knights Templar.
    Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG)

    Past results are no guarantee of future performance but, when it comes to murder, San Miguel de Allende seems pretty safe for U.S. citizens.

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